Job prospects Pilot - Air Transport in Canada

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

The analysis of key labour market indicators such as job vacancies and employment growth, as well as the unemployment rate suggests that the supply exceeded substantially the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this surplus was largely due to the restrictions imposed on hard-to-distance businesses, which lead to strong job losses.

For Transportation officers and controllers, over the period 2022-2031, new job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 17,100 , while 11,100 new job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill them.

With the quick post-pandemic demand recovery for this occupational group, the projected number of job openings is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job seekers, significantly enough to not only eliminate the temporary surplus situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, but to also turn it around to a shortage situation over the 2022-2031 period. A more detailed analysis of the outlook for this occupational group will be released in the coming weeks.